Exxon Predicts 35% Increase in Energy Demand by 2020, Expanded Use of All Energy Sources
ExxonMobil CEO Rex W. Tillerson. (image: planetark.org)
In its latest report, ExxonMobil said that rising energy demand over the next two decades will require investment in the development of all potential energy sources, United Press International reported on Wednesday. The report, “New Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030,” predicted that energy demand in 2030 would be about 35 percent higher compared to demand in 2005, and meeting that demand would require “trillions of dollars of investment and a commitment to innovation.”
ExxonMobil’s outlook included the potential effects of carbon emissions reduction policies (the same policies being discussed at the Copenhagen conference this week) on energy demand and the global share of different energy sources. The company said that imposing higher costs for carbon emissions would drive energy prices higher and provide an incentive to switch to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas.
The oil giant said that fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas will continue to meet most global energy needs in the near future, “because no other energy source can match their availability, versatility, affordability, and scale.” It added that the use of natural gas will grow the fastest, because of “its abundance, versatility, and economic advantages as an efficient, clean-burning fuel for power generation.”
The report also stated that the natural gas supply is set to increase, particularly in the U.S. Unconventional gas supplies (supplies accessed with relatively new technologies like hydrofracking) in the U.S. are expected to meet more than 50 percent of domestic gas demand by 2030.
Although turning energy sources with a smaller carbon footprint into practical solutions will be a major challenge, ExxonMobil remains optimistic about the future. “We see many hopeful things — economic recovery and growth, improved living standards and a reduction in poverty, and promising new energy technologies,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rex W. Tillerson.
However, the company also sees a tremendous challenge, and “that is how to meet the world’s growing energy needs while also reducing the impact of energy use on the environment,” Tillerson said. He went on to say that supplies of all economic fuel sources must increase to meet projected increases in global energy demand.
The global population is projected to rise to almost 8 billion, so the demand for energy indirectly applied to serve growing societies will also increase.
ExxonMobil said that gains in energy efficiency are expected to accelerate rapidly between now and 2030, compared to historical trends. It said that efficiency gains will suppress growth in energy demand through 2030 by about 65 percent.
If and when petroleum refiners are forced to pay for carbon emissions through cap and trade and/or carbon taxes, ExxonMobil’s predictions would mean higher prices for energy users, and for heating oil consumers specifically. Over time, prices should decrease however, as renewable fuels become a bigger part of the heating oil mix, and the overall demand for petroleum-based fuel decreases.
