Peak Oil: A Breakdown
by Steve Zweig
Is oil a limited resource?
Yes. Oil was produced from the remains of prehistoric animals. (That’s why it’s called a “fossil” fuel.) Specifically, most oil was produced from organisms which lived between 100 and 150 million years ago. Since there were only so many organisms living then, only so much oil could have been produced from them. Once it’s used up, there’s no more.
Are we going to run out of oil?
Maybe—some people say yes, some say no. And among those who feel we will run out one day, there is considerable difference of opinion about when. And “when” is the real question anyway; the sun will one day expand into a red giant and swallow Earth, but since that’s not for 5 billion years, nobody gets upset about it. Knowing when we may run out of oil is as important as knowing if it will happen at all.
Peak Oil Theory—A Primer
Peak oil refers to when oil production “maxes out”—when the world is producing the most oil per day that it ever will. After that, it’s all downhill, and oil production will decline. However, “downhill” is not the same as “over and done”—peak oil is not when oil is depleted or used up, but when we start pumping less out of the ground. There will still be oil for years after that, but a reduction in supply will increase cost.
M. King Hubbert, the father of Peak Oil theory. (image: laugalaekjarskoli.is)
Most studies or theories of peak oil are built on the work of Dr. M. King Hubbert, a geoscientist at Shell who did most of his work in the 1950s and ’60s. The Hubbert peak theory says that for any limited resource, production follows a more-or-less bell-shaped curve (see graph below), and further argues that:
- Production starts at zero—nobody knows the resource is there, or what to with it
- Production climbs, as people start extracting and using the resource
- Not all of a resource is equally easy to exploit—some is located in less accessible places or costs more to dig up; the “easy” or “cheap” material is taken first
- As the last of the easily available resource is mined, the peak or top of the bell is reached
- After that, as more difficult or expensive sources are tapped, production starts decreasing
- Eventually (in theory) all of a finite resource is used up and production goes back to zero
Hubbert felt that one day, oil production would peak and then decline. In fact, according to his work, we should be peaking more-or-less now, sometime around the early 2000’s.
The Hubbert Curve. (image: wikimedia.org)
Not everyone believes in peak oil. There are scientists and economists who think the theory doesn’t give enough weight to advances in technology that will increase oil supply and reduce demand. They also feel that the theory is too inflexible in its assumptions. For example, it assumes that the demand for oil remains constant or grows even as price increases, instead of assuming that supply, demand, and price affect each other in a constant feedback loop.
Dept of Energy Acknowledges Possibility of Peak Oil Production After 2011 | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] Glen Sweetnam’s new uncertainty and the above graph from the DOE show that the Department takes seriously the possibility of peak oil, the lack of outright confirmation of the coming decline it predicts likely follows from the line [...]
UK Scientists Say World Oil Reserves Are “Exaggerated” | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] that compile statistics on oil and energy, reported the Daily Telegraph of London. The researchers warned that organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Admi… that OPEC’s estimates are misleading, and could be failing to prepare governments for the oil [...]
Kuwaiti Researchers Predict Peak Oil Production in 2014 | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] study began with the Hubbert forecast model, named for peak oil pioneer M. King Hubbert, who successfully predicted that crude oil production in the US would peak in 1970. Though proven to be a useful tool in predicting peak oil, the Hubbert model has limitations when [...]
Richard Branson Pours Fuel on a Fiery Debate with Prediction of Peak Oil in 5 Years | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] always-controversial peak oil theory states that global crude oil production will eventually reach (or has already passed) its [...]
BP Economist, Arab Oil Producers Say No Peak Oil Any Time Soon | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] article in Emirates Business 24/7 this week announced new studies and figures aimed at proving that claims about peak oil are “exaggerated.” This latest round in the high-stakes game between oil producers and [...]
Peak Oil Task Force Helps Kentucky Town Prepare for its Future | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] would do if global oil supplies were to dry up (and the world was to reach what’s dubbed “peak oil”), or the price of crude was to spike significantly, city officials last year created the [...]
Brazil Set to Become Latin America’s Biggest Oil and Gas Producer by 2011 | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] in the world of oil production, there is no standing still: to stand still is to fall behind. All wells and fields experience a reduction in output over time as more readily accessible reserves are drawn down. Exacerbating that is that the infrastructure of [...]
Canada’s GV Energy to Produce Little-Known Biodiesel | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] Although DME is not widely known in North America, stricter U.S. greenhouse gas emissions standards may boost its popularity. GV Energy CEO Eric Switzer told the CBC that even though DME might never completely replace fossil fuels, if the world has reached peak oil production as many believe, it could comprise a viable solution. [...]
Physicist Aleklett Says Peak Oil Led to Dubai Crisis | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] many attractions are meant to be enjoyed by people who would travel to Dubai by air. In light of peak oil, a phenomenon Aleklett wholeheartedly believes in, aviation will not be able to expand in the [...]
IHS CERA Says Peak Oil Won’t Happen Until 2030 | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] debate over peak oil rages on. The New York Times’ Green Inc. blog discussed Tuesday the latest report from IHS [...]
Schork: Oil Prices Inflated but Could Keep Rising; Peak Oil is Political Phenomenon | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] one of his simplest, most made-for-controversy remarks: when asked about peak oil, Schork replied, “I don’t believe in it at all.” Not believe in peak oil? Does Schork believe [...]
Oil Expert Maugeri: 21st Century Will See Increased Crude Oil Supplies | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] theory of peak oil, developed in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert, a geoscientist at the Shell Corporation, can be [...]
UK Study: We’re Not Ready for Peak Oil | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] HeatingOil.com reported this summer, peak oil refers to when global oil production reaches its max, and we’ve essentially accessed all the oil [...]
CEO of Saudi Aramco: Oil Demand Will Rise, But Not Soon | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] about the long-term prognosis? When asked about the threat of running out of oil, as predicted by peak oil theory, Al-Falih said, “oil will be with us not for decades, but for generations to come. . . . [...]
Profile of an Oil Producer: Libya | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] Peak Oil: A BreakdownCFTC Report Will Blame Speculators for Oil Price Spike, New Regulations LikelyBiofuel Heating OilCFTC Announces Plans for Tighter Controls on Speculation; Heating Oil Prices Could be Affected DIY Home Energy Conservation Projects that Will Save You Big Bucks [...]
Oil Experts Hansen and Cota Talk Prices on Vermont Public Radio | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] reflects expectations of a future in which world demand for oil increases while supplies decrease (the peak oil scenario). The demand for oil, Hansen said, also closely follows the path of the world’s economy as [...]
Wash. DC-Based Environ Pioneers Process to Extract Fuel from Plastic Waste | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] waste plastic sitting in landfills. Turning that sows ear into a silk purse could help stave off peak oil and make a hefty [...]
Energy Analyst Kopits Says Oil Prices Could Keep US in Recession | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] Kopits is a strong believer in the global peak oil theory, which holds that worldwide oil production will peak sometime in the next 10 to 100 years, as oil becomes more scarce, reducing supply and increasing cost. Peak oil implies that we need to reduce our dependence on oil because we could eventually run out of the stuff. [...]
When Green Energy is Blue Energy: Power From the Sea | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] CFTC Report Will Blame Speculators for Oil Price Spike, New Regulations LikelyBiofuel Heating OilCFTC Announces Plans for Tighter Controls on Speculation; Heating Oil Prices Could be Affected DIY Home Energy Conservation Projects that Will Save You Big Bucks Peak Oil: A Breakdown [...]
Dismal Sciences « The Clever Use of Flags says: says:
[...] this conclusion from “Peak Oil: A Breakdown”: This last notion—that peak oil will happen, but will be more of a hiccup than a heart [...]
Energy Analyst: Peak Oil is a Foolish Fear | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] days, the theory of global peak oil is generally accepted as fact. Geologists (remember Hubbert?) say we have a finite amount of fossil [...]
EIA: Peak Oil and Resulting Crude and Heating Oil Price Spikes 10 Years Away | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] term “peak oil” refers to a time in the future when crude oil essentially maxes out and production be…. Most geologists and economists today generally believe that peak oil is real, but some do not. [...]
Opinion: Stats Show That Peak Oil Has Come and Gone | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] Is it possible to “max out” the amount of oil we can produce per day? And, if so, have we reached that point? There is evidence that the answer is “yes” to both of these questions. In the 1950s and 60s, prominent geologist Dr. M. King Hubbert developed the “Peak Oil” theory. The Peak Oil theory states that once the most easily available portion of a resource is reached, production has reached its peak, and then production will begin to slow. More details about the Peak Oil theory can be found in this HeatingOil.com article. [...]
Visions of a World Without Oil | HeatingOil.com says: says:
[...] what happens when oil gets scarce? One day it will, though people do disagree on when that will be. Not surprisingly, some people have spent A LOT [...]